This is the beginning of an ongoing compilation. Scientists at a UK conference - 4 Degrees & Beyond, Tyndall Centre in Sept. 2009 sought to contemplate the potential for adaptation to a planet that, it was suggested, on our present course would become at least +4C hotter by 2100 (global average), and perhaps as soon as 2055.
The betrayal is that it is not possible to adapt to a +4C hotter world. In fact, it may only be possible for a portion of humanity to survive it, and not easily or pleasantly. And that would be temporary because +4C would be well beyond tipping points that would lead to +5C, +6C, and so on.
The neighborhood of +6C global average temperature increase beyond pre-industrial (1900) levels is considered unlivable for most life. A rise of +3C would assure the catastrophic collapse of agriculture worldwide. In vulnerable climates like Africa, this tip would begin at +1C and occur through the lead up to +2C (billions hungry or starved).
An expanded summary will follow soon. Meanwhile, check out the resources below.
- Article - End of the world is just a matter of degrees, says one expert, Jo Chandler, The Age
- Article - On course to suffer catastrophic heating of 4C, Paddy Manning, SMH
- Article - 2 degrees of disaster, Elizabeth Kolbert, The New Yorker
- Article - No rainforest, no monsoon, get ready for a warmer world, New Scientist
- Article - Climate change scientists warn of +4C temperature rise "within a lifetime", and little or no chance of limiting rise to +2C, Damian Carrington, The Guardian
- Article - Crop failures / drought within our children's lifetimes, S. Connor, The Independent
- Article - Cancun Climate Change Summit: Scientists call for WW2-like rationing in developed world, Louise Gray, The Telegraph
- Article - Andrew Simms, 72 months and counting, The Guardian
- Post - Royal Society details 'hellish vision' of +4C (7F) world by 2060s! Joe Romm, CP
- Report/collected articles - +4C and Beyond: Potential + Implications, various, Royal Society
- ecoSanity - Dire projections of +4°C–6°C temp rise by 2100 (deadly to most life) conservative, could be +10°C–12°C! Dennis Bushnell, Chief Scientist, Langley Research Center, NASA
- Post - +4C hotter, an adaptation trap? David Spratt, Climate Code Red Blog
- Primer PDF - +4C hotter, a Climate Action Center primer, David Spratt, ClimateActionCenter.org
- ecoSanity - Met Office: +4C by 2060 "highly plausible", "catastrophic"
- ecoSanity - 2009 Climate Change Human Impact report: Hundreds of millions suffering; 4 billion vulerable NOW
- ecoSanity - Models guiding climate policy 'dangerously optimistic'
- ecoSanity - 2007 IPCC reports: Dangerous, outdated underestimates of the present state and accelerating pace of global climate disruption
- ecoSanity - The supposed +2C danger threshold is bull**** (it's dangerous now at only +0.8C, and we're already committed to +2.4C)
- ecoSanity - Hansen: Re-thinking a "safe climate": Have we already gone too far? David Spratt
- ecoSanity - 2100: An unlivable world? Nicholas Stern warns of +4-7C by 2100
- ecoSanity - Race to survival or sprint to extinction? A summary of the March 2009 'Emergency' Climate Conference in Copenhagen (before the December 2009 debacle) that concludes the world is already committed to a near future +2.4C average temp increase)
- ecoSanity - Global carbon budget to avoid irriversible climate tipping points to be exceeded by 2021 or sooner!, David Spratt, George Monbiot
- ecoSanity - Compilation: Methane time bomb EMERGENCY (death spiral meltdown of arctic ice)
- ecoSanity - Compilation: Ocean acidification
- ecoSanity - GLOBAL EMERGENCY NOW: Mass base life die-off threatens survival of most life on Earth -- Seriously!
- ecoSanity - Shocking Report Exposes Ocean EMERGENCY: Must Achieve Zero CO2 Emissions Within 20 Yrs, Remove Gasses From Air, Experts
- ecoSanity - Plan B 4.0: Months, not years to save civilization from climate change, L. Brown
- ecoSanity - Food / agriculture and climate emergency
- ecoSanity - Race 2 Survival (R2S) Campaign
- ecoSanity - Conservative energy agency (IEA) warning that 'lock in' to irreversible climate change is only 5 years away far too optimistic; reality even more dire
- ecoSanity - EMERGENCY: Instead of peak/reverse necessary to prevent runaway climate disruption, record 2010 emissions higher than 2007 IPCC's worst-case scenario(!)
- Google Climate Map offers glimpse of 4C world, Adam Vaughan, The Guardian
- Conference - 4 Degrees & Beyond, Tyndall Centre