Compilation: +4C by 2060s or Sooner (Catastrophic)
This is the beginning of an ongoing compilation. Scientists at a UK conference - 4 Degrees & Beyond, Tyndall Centre in Sept. 2009 sought to contemplate the potential for adaptation to a planet that, it was suggested, on our present course would become at least +4C hotter by 2100 (global average), and perhaps as soon as 2055.
The betrayal is that it is not possible to adapt to a +4C hotter world. In fact, it may only be possible for a portion of humanity to survive it, and not easily or pleasantly. And that would be temporary because +4C would be well beyond tipping points that would lead to +5C, +6C, and so on.
The neighborhood of +6C global average temperature increase beyond pre-industrial (1900) levels is considered unlivable for most life. A rise of +3C would assure the catastrophic collapse of agriculture worldwide. In vulnerable climates like Africa, this tip would begin at +1C and occur through the lead up to +2C (billions hungry or starved).
An expanded summary will follow soon. Meanwhile, check out the resources below.
MORE
- Article - End of the world is just a matter of degrees, says one expert, Jo Chandler, The Age
- Article - On course to suffer catastrophic heating of 4C, Paddy Manning, SMH
- Article - 2 degrees of disaster, Elizabeth Kolbert, The New Yorker
- Article - No rainforest, no monsoon, get ready for a warmer world, New Scientist
- Article - Climate change scientists warn of +4C temperature rise "within a lifetime", and little or no chance of limiting rise to +2C, Damian Carrington, The Guardian
- Article - Crop failures / drought within our children's lifetimes, S. Connor, The Independent
- Article - Cancun Climate Change Summit: Scientists call for WW2-like rationing in developed world, Louise Gray, The Telegraph
- Article - Andrew Simms, 72 months and counting, The Guardian
- Post - Royal Society details 'hellish vision' of +4C (7F) world by 2060s! Joe Romm, CP
- Report/collected articles - +4C and Beyond: Potential + Implications, various, Royal Society
- ecoSanity - Dire projections of +4°C–6°C temp rise by 2100 (deadly to most life) conservative, could be +10°C–12°C! Dennis Bushnell, Chief Scientist, Langley Research Center, NASA
- Post - +4C hotter, an adaptation trap? David Spratt, Climate Code Red Blog
- Primer PDF - +4C hotter, a Climate Action Center primer, David Spratt, ClimateActionCenter.org
- ecoSanity - Met Office: +4C by 2060 "highly plausible", "catastrophic"
- ecoSanity - 2009 Climate Change Human Impact report: Hundreds of millions suffering; 4 billion vulerable NOW
- ecoSanity - Models guiding climate policy 'dangerously optimistic'
- ecoSanity - 2007 IPCC reports: Dangerous, outdated underestimates of the present state and accelerating pace of global climate disruption
- ecoSanity - The supposed +2C danger threshold is bull**** (it's dangerous now at only +0.8C, and we're already committed to +2.4C)
- ecoSanity - Hansen: Re-thinking a "safe climate": Have we already gone too far? David Spratt
- ecoSanity - 2100: An unlivable world? Nicholas Stern warns of +4-7C by 2100
- ecoSanity - Race to survival or sprint to extinction? A summary of the March 2009 'Emergency' Climate Conference in Copenhagen (before the December 2009 debacle) that concludes the world is already committed to a near future +2.4C average temp increase)
- ecoSanity - Global carbon budget to avoid irriversible climate tipping points to be exceeded by 2021 or sooner!, David Spratt, George Monbiot
- ecoSanity - Compilation: Methane time bomb EMERGENCY (death spiral meltdown of arctic ice)
- ecoSanity - Compilation: Ocean acidification
- ecoSanity - GLOBAL EMERGENCY NOW: Mass base life die-off threatens survival of most life on Earth -- Seriously!
- ecoSanity - Shocking Report Exposes Ocean EMERGENCY: Must Achieve Zero CO2 Emissions Within 20 Yrs, Remove Gasses From Air, Experts
- ecoSanity - Plan B 4.0: Months, not years to save civilization from climate change, L. Brown
- ecoSanity - Food / agriculture and climate emergency
- ecoSanity - Race 2 Survival (R2S) Campaign
- ecoSanity - Conservative energy agency (IEA) warning that 'lock in' to irreversible climate change is only 5 years away far too optimistic; reality even more dire
- ecoSanity - EMERGENCY: Instead of peak/reverse necessary to prevent runaway climate disruption, record 2010 emissions higher than 2007 IPCC's worst-case scenario(!)
General
- Google Climate Map offers glimpse of 4C world, Adam Vaughan, The Guardian
- Conference - 4 Degrees & Beyond, Tyndall Centre
Comments
Glenn,
The 4 degrees conference at Oxford was in September, 2009. Several of the papers from the conference were published in a special edition of the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society in early 2011 (which you link to).
The lectures from the main session of the conference are available here - powerpoints and audio. Video is available either from iTunes or here (podcasts too). There is a lot of material there. For a quick tour, I would recommend the presentations by Schellnhuber, Allen, Karoly, Rahmstorf and Anderson.
There was also a similar conference in Australia earlier this year. You can navigate to presentation collateral from the main page. Again, short version - maybe Schellnhuber, Meinshausen, Steffen, maybe Ove-G.
For what it is worth, although the Copenhagen COP was a bit of a dud, the 2009 Copenhagen Accord that came from it did establish the goal of limiting emissions to try to stay below 2 degrees C. One can argue that the national commitments subsequent to that are insufficient to achieving that, but at least that objective has been formalized. The 4C stuff is good for scare stories, but really we need to be focussing on the emission pathways (and cumulative emission implications) that can avoid 2C (or close to). Disappointing as the UNFCCC process is, there are some glimmers of hope that this scientifically credible way of looking at the problem is getting through to policy makers. When it gets translated to meaningful action, that's a whole other issue - as I am sure you are aware!
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